In terms of sheer scope of opportunity to effectively pursue your financial
objectives, it’s hard to beat futures trading. The diversity of instruments
and markets included provides just about any trader everything they could
possibly need to employ all kinds of speculative and/or hedging activities.
In short, the futures market provides opportunities to trade markets in
which one would not otherwise easily be able to take part.
Gold is a great example.
To put things in perspective, gold started 2006 at around $520/oz. As of
this writing it is around $650/oz. That’s a gain of $13,000 per futures
contract, which is a return of nearly 350% on the $3750 margin needed to
initiate the position (about a $4300 gain on the mini gold contract which
has a margin requirement of about $1250).
Another excellent example is Crude Oil.
In this case, a buyer at the start of 2006, when prices were around $61 per
barrel, would be up about $10,000 at the approximately $71/barrel price
as of this writing. That is on a $4725 margin deposit, which means a gain
of over 200% (gain would be $5000 on a $2350 margin for the mini).
Of course the situation works both ways. One can just as easily lose money
in futures trading.
The point being made here, though, is that if it were
not for the futures market it would be very hard for the average trader to
take part in markets like gold and crude oil (along with many others).
Once upon a time, the futures market was the realm of large institutions
and big time speculators. The increased availability of “mini” contracts,
with their lower margin requirements and smaller per tick values, though,
has made futures trading much more accessible to the average trader.
This guide will provide you a basic introduction to the futures market. It is
by no means a comprehensive discussion of everything futures related, but
the pages that follow do lay the ground work and do make suggestions as
to where one can go to learn more.
That said, let’s get going!
Definitions
First things first. We need to de-
fine just exactly what we’re talking
about here. To do that we need to
first talk about forward contracts.
A forward contract—or simply a
forward– is an agreement between
two parties to make a transaction
at some point in the future, gener-
ally with pre-defined specifica-
tions. For example, if you and I
agree that next week you will buy
my car from me for $5000, that
would be a forward contract. We
have a specified time, price, and asset being exchanged.
Now imagine instead that I am a farmer and you are in the flour business.
You need wheat to make your flour, so you get it from me. Of course my
crop won’t be ready until harvest time, so you and I make an agreement
that in three months you will buy 5,000 bushels of my wheat at $5 each.
That too is considered a forward contract. Simple enough, right?
Now that we have forwards sorted out, defining futures is pretty easy.
A futures contract is simply a standardized forward contract. That means
all of the contract terms are predefined. This is done by a futures ex-
change (of which there are many) to help facilitate easier trading.
Let’s use wheat as an example again. If it is just you and I making an ar-
rangement for you to buy my wheat, then it would be simple enough just to
agree on forward contract terms. In the massive global markets, though, it
isn’t always so easy for buyers and sellers to come together like that. So we
have the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) come in to act as a marketplace.
The CBOT, though, cannot have everyone trading on different forward
contract terms, though. It would make for a very inefficient operation. So
they standardize the contract terms.
In terms of wheat, the CBOT has decided that transactions will be done in
5,000 bushel lots. That means each contract is for the exchange of 5,000
bushels of wheat. The exchange has also defined the acceptable grades of
wheat (I won’t get in to that) and the months which the delivery of the
wheat can take place (March, May, July, September, December), and even
the days during which delivery must happen.
This might all seem quite complicated. It really isn’t. In fact, the contract
specifications are designed to make trading possible. Without them there
simply would not be a market. The fact of the matter is that speculators do
not really have to concern themselves with much beyond the contract size
and the price. We’ll get more in to that later.
Why Forwards and Futures?
At this stage you may be wondering why there are forward contracts and
futures markets—what purpose they serve. It’s a fair question.
We can assume that forward contracts go back millennia—for as long as
there have been farmers and those who needed their produce. The miller
needs wheat to produce flour and has to get it from the farmer. There is a
lot of uncertainty, though. Supply and demand considerations create price
fluctuations. The farmer and the miller cannot necessarily be sure of what
the price is going to be for wheat when the crop is ready. They both need
to be able to budget their income (farmer) and expenses (miller) so they
enter in to a forward contract which locks a price in. The farmer knows
how much he is going to receive for his wheat and that he’s got a locked-in
customer. At the same time the miller knows that he’s got a guaranteed
supply of wheat and what it’s going to cost him.
This sort of arrangement still goes on today. You may even be doing some-
thing like it yourself. Many companies which provide heating oil or natu-
ral gas offer customers the opportunity to lock in prices at a certain rate.
The idea is that you are protected against price increases. This is a forward
contract at its simplest level.
As long as there is price uncertainty, there will be the need for forward
contracts. The futures market is just a kind of wholesale operation to fa-
cilitate their arrangements.
Having said that, though, the futures markets of the modern day go way
beyond just putting producers of raw materials together with manufactur-
ers of end or intermediate products.
Actually, most of the trading done in futures these days is not done with
delivery of the actual product in mind. There are, of course, a great many
speculators. They are a necessity to help provide liquidity—despite what
some folks might otherwise think.
The futures markets also provide a hedging mechanism. They allow a wide
array of participants the opportunity to protect themselves against adverse
price action.
For example, imagine you are a multinational company doing trade in Ja-
pan. When you sell product to customers there you receive Yen, which you
will eventually want to convert in to Dollars. The exchange rate between
the Yen and the Dollar fluctuates constantly. In order to protect yourself
against the Yen weakening against the Dollar (thereby making the value of
your Yen profits lower) you can hedge yourself. That can be done in the
futures market.
There are all kinds of businesses and whatnot who have some kind of price
exposure in their operations. Many use the futures market to help protect
themselves. They don’t expect to deliver or take delivery of the product
they are hedging. They just use them to offset their price risk and secure
their business. This applies to mutual and hedge funds as well. Both use
futures to hedge their portfolios.
